CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-11-05T00:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-11-05T00:09ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/34428/-1
CME Note: CME first seen in the East by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2024-11-05T00:09Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and STEREO A COR2 in later frames. The source of this event is a region of dimming seen centered at approximately N05E35 beginning around 05/23:19Z as seen in SDO AIA 193 and 211. Field line opening is also visible in GOES SUVI 195 and 284. ARRIVAL SIGNATURE per analysis by Carlos Perez Alanis, LASSOS team: L1 signature on 2024-11-07 through 11-09 could be indicative of two merged ICMEs (possibly a merger of this CME with the CME with ID 2024-11-04T17:24:00-CME-001). The relatively weak shock/sheath signature starting at 2024-11-07T14:29Z is characterized by a minor enhancement in the magnetic field (with B_total reaching only 8nT). The shock is however clearly visible in the plasma measurements (a jump in solar wind speed from 380 to 425 km/s and in density from 6 to over 13 p/cc). Following this the solar wind is a bit disturbed, possibly it is the sheath which may have lasted quite long due to the mixed ICMEs. There are two consecutive flux rope signatures in the following signature. The likely arrival of the first flux rope is after 2024-11-08T10:25Z. This first flux rope signature is characterized by an increase in B_total to over 16nT, smooth rotation of all three magnetic field components, as well as by a drop in density and temperature. The second flux rope signature starts around 2024-11-08T23:30Z and is characterized by B_total reaching 16nT, a long period of negative Bz and another drop in density and temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-11-07T14:29Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-11-07T16:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: -1470.47 hour(s)
Difference: -1.52 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:57Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy